Maldives Announces Indian Troop Withdrawal Starting March

The Maldives and India have reached an agreement for the withdrawal of Indian troops stationed in the island nation, marking a significant shift in their bilateral relations.

Troop Presence and Recent Tensions:

India has maintained a contingent of approximately 89 troops in the Maldives since 2009, stationed primarily to operate gifted military equipment, including aircraft and helicopters, used for maritime patrol and medical evacuations. However, relations between the two countries have faced strain in recent months, particularly following the election of Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu in September 2023. President Muizzu campaigned on a platform of closer ties with China, a major creditor of the Maldives, and called for the withdrawal of Indian troops.

Withdrawal Details and Implications:

According to the Maldivian foreign ministry, the withdrawal will begin in March 2024, with a two-month timeframe for completion. While the Indian government's statement lacks explicit mention of withdrawal, it acknowledges "mutually workable solutions" to ensure the continued operation of Indian aviation platforms for humanitarian and medical services. This suggests the possibility of civilian personnel replacing the troops to maintain these services.

The troop withdrawal has significant geopolitical implications. India views the Maldives, situated in the strategically crucial Indian Ocean, as part of its sphere of influence. China's growing economic and military presence in the region has been a point of contention for India, making the Maldives a potential flashpoint. The withdrawal could be seen as a concession by India to appease Maldivian concerns and potentially pave the way for improved relations. However, it also raises questions about the future of regional security cooperation and China's role in the Maldives.

Uncertainties and Future Outlook:

The long-term consequences of the troop withdrawal remain uncertain. While the move may address immediate tensions, it could create a power vacuum in the region, potentially making the Maldives more susceptible to external influence. The future trajectory of India-Maldives relations and the broader geopolitical landscape in the Indian Ocean will depend on how both countries navigate this evolving situation.